Bitcoin Is Flashing the Same Signal It Did Before Its Last 300% Rally

The Metrics Say Yes, But the Full Picture Is More Complicated

Several on-chain and macro indicators suggest Bitcoin is currently trading below where historical trends would place it, particularly relative to gold and the global money supply. But whether that translates into a near-term price recovery is far from settled, with analysts split on what comes next.

Here is what the data shows, and what it does not.

What Samson Mow's Analysis Actually Shows

Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology company Jan3, made a case over the weekend that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued relative to two major benchmarks.

"Bitcoin is 24% to 66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap or global money supply, while gold is overextended," Mow posted on X.

Gold futures for April delivery closed Friday at $5,247.90, with tokenized gold product PAX Gold trading at $5,360.14 at the time of writing. Bitcoin, by comparison, sits near $65,892 after falling over 50% from its peak to a low of $60,000.

The Z-Score Signal Worth Watching

Central to Mow's argument is the Bitcoin-to-gold Z-score, a metric that measures how far the ratio between BTC and gold has drifted from its historical average. A reading of 0 means the ratio is in line with history. Negative readings mean Bitcoin is underpriced relative to gold on a historical basis.

The current Z-score sits at approximately -1.24. That matters because of what has happened at deeper negative readings:

• In November 2022, the score dropped below -3 during the FTX collapse. Bitcoin then rallied over 150% in the following 12 months.
• In March 2020, during the Covid crash, the score fell below -2 when BTC hit a low of around $3,717. Bitcoin surged over 300% in the next 12 months, reaching an all-time high of approximately $69,000 by November 2021.

Mow's view is that a score approaching -2 has historically preceded major price rallies. The market is not there yet, but the direction is notable.

Is the On-Chain Data Telling the Same Story?

Not entirely. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr flagged an anomaly in another key metric: the MVRV Z-score.

The MVRV Z-score measures the normalized deviation of Bitcoin's market capitalization from its realized capitalization, which is essentially the average price at which all existing BTC last moved on-chain. Negative values indicate the market price is trading below what the on-chain data considers fair value.

The MVRV Z-score stood at -2.28, on Feb. 26, having hit a local low of -3.38 on February 5, according to Axel Adler Jr. For context, the December 2018 cycle bottom saw readings around -1.6, and November 2022 registered -1.4. The current reading is historically extreme.

Adler attributes part of this to the arrival of Bitcoin ETFs, which have raised the network's overall cost basis and may be distorting traditional Z-score thresholds.

What the NUPL Metric Adds

At the same time, Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, was 0.17, on Feb. 27, placing market sentiment in the zone labeled "hope." A drop below 0 has historically been required to confirm a true cycle bottom. That level has not been reached, which suggests full market capitulation may not have occurred yet and could take months to materialize.

Why Some Analysts Are Not Convinced

André Dragosch, head of research in Europe at Bitwise, acknowledged Bitcoin's macro discounts but cautioned against expecting a fast recovery. 

"Apart from Covid, bitcoin doesn't usually show V-shaped recoveries after strong capitulations," he said.

Dragosch's base case is continued sideways to downward price action in the near term. Supporting that caution, data from CryptoQuant shows large Bitcoin holders have been moving coins onto Binance at record levels, a pattern that often signals selling intent and increases spot market supply.

Negative funding rates in February reinforced the bearish picture. Some analysts are watching for a potential drop toward $50,000, with price action drawing comparisons to the 2022 bear market.

Conclusion

The data presents a real tension. Macro and on-chain metrics show Bitcoin at historically discounted levels relative to gold, global money supply, and ETP flows. But sentiment indicators and large holder behavior suggest the market has not yet completed a full reset. Both readings can be true at once, and historically they often have been, right before the next move in either direction.

Resources

1. Samson Mow on X: Post on March 1

2. Aalysis by Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr: MVRV Z-Score Deeper Than 2018 and 2022, but NUPL Does Not Confirm Capitulation

3. Report by CoinDesk: Bitcoin gains, is still 'signficantly undervalued,' Bitwise says. 'Extreme fear' dominates.