Bitcoin's Bottom is in Says Top Analyst: 'Stay Humble and Stack Sats'

Bitcoin's worst drawdown pain is probably behind us, according to one of the most respected on-chain analysts in the space. James Check, better known as Checkmate, is Glassnode's lead analyst and the mind behind the Checkonchain analytics suite. On February 24, he posted a detailed breakdown arguing that every major mean reversion model he tracks is flashing bottom formation signals. His message to investors sitting on the sidelines: stay humble, and stack sats.

The call comes after a brutal stretch. Bitcoin has shed roughly 50% from its all-time high near $125,000 in October 2025, sliding into the $60,000 to $70,000 range by late February 2026. A 19% plunge in early February triggered aggressive deleveraging across the market, rattling even seasoned holders. As of February 25 at 7:30 PM CET, BTC was trading at $69,297, up 7.6% in 24 hours after bouncing from a low of $62,553 the day before, with 24-hour volume at $46.39 billion and a market cap of $1.38 trillion.

So is the bleeding actually over?

What Is Checkmate's On-Chain Data Saying?

Checkmate's February 24 post racked up 2.3K likes, 407 reposts, and 223K views for good reason. It lays out a case built on multiple converging signals that all point in the same direction. Here are the key takeaways.

Mean reversion models are deep in the bottom zone. "Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which Dec 2018 and Jun 2022 were examples of)." He notes Bitcoin is sitting in the bottom 20% of conservative deviations and the bottom 5% of aggressive ones from what he calls "sane anchor models." That kind of extreme reading has historically lined up with generational buying opportunities.

Realized losses have been massive. Both the November 2025 and February 2026 sell-offs landed in the hall of fame for realized loss events on-chain. "Not the biggest in relative terms, but by far the largest in USD terms, over $7.5 Billion over just those two days." That combined scale of pain across the two events typically signals that weak hands have already exited.

Key support levels are holding. The 200-week moving average sits at $58,500, which Checkmate describes as "a mere bees dick below the $60k low we already set." The realized price, representing the average cost basis of all BTC on-chain, is around $55,000. He adds that every excess leverage level has been cleared down to $60,000, with no stop losses surviving February's move. That drastically reduces the risk of another sharp leg down.

His Checkonchain Mean Reversion Index chart backs all of this up visually. The index's mean quantile reads 11.7%, meaning Bitcoin is trading in the lowest 11.7% of historical deviations from fair value. That is territory only seen during bear market bottoms. As Checkmate noted in a February 6 update: "Based on long-term mean reversion models, we're currently trading at levels only seen in 15% to 20% of trading days, coincident with bear market lows."

Price Pain vs. Time Pain: What Comes Next?

This is where Checkmate tempers expectations. While the sharp drawdown is likely done, a different kind of suffering may be just getting started.

"Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains. It will claim many who don't want to see the rest of the movie."

Time pain is the grind. Retests of lows, leaky price charts, powerful rallies that fade, and potentially lower lows before the trend finally turns. He compares it to 2022, where the difference between June's $17,600 low and December's $15,600 bottom was "frankly irrelevant for any long-term investor" in price terms but stretched across six agonizing months.

He calls this phase "chopsolidation," and it could easily drag on. "There is no rush, but these Bitcoin prices are temporary. How temporary we do not know, but it's tremendously oversold, and there are few statistics I am aware of that suggest otherwise."

The implication: do not expect a V-shaped recovery. Expect boredom, frustration, and a lot of noise.

What Should Investors Actually Do?

Checkmate does not dance around it.

"If you're not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when? Don't fantasise over lump summing the exact bottom wick. You will be too scared to do it on the day."

"Buy the whole bottom. Dollar cost average for the next six months, and remove your emotions from the problem at hand."

He also fires a shot at the doom crowd: "Ignore the bears. They will perpetually revise their targets lower and lower, and get plenty of clicks for doing so. Humans love bear-porn because we're wired to avoid risk."

And the framing is binary: "Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken... Or you should be ignoring the bears, staying very humble, and quietly DCA stacking sats from here on."

His closing line lands hard: "Investing is a game of picking great assets, accumulating at low prices, and then being patient as fuck."

Is He the Only One Seeing This?

Not even close. Multiple analysts across X have echoed similar readings throughout February.

• Stockmoney Lizards posted on February 24: "Bitcoin has entered its bottom finding phase - coins will be flipped for a while before we go up again. Simple as that."
• Merlijn The Trader flagged what he called "The Ultimate Bitcoin Bottom Signal" in a February 14 video post.

These are just a few among a growing chorus of analysts reading similar signals across X throughout February.

On-chain data also supports the broader sentiment shift. Weekly RSI hit record lows, roughly $70 billion in volume exchanged in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, and the February 25 bounce above $65,400 came alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and Asian equity rallies, fueling double-bottom speculation.

The Bottom Line

The data is stacking up. Mean reversion models, realized loss metrics, key moving averages, and broader analyst consensus are all converging on the same conclusion: Bitcoin is in deep value territory. That does not mean the ride from here will be smooth. Chopsolidation could test patience for months. But for anyone with a longer time horizon, Checkmate's advice is about as clear as it gets.

Stay humble. Stack sats. Ignore the bears. They lack ambition.

Sources:

• Checkmate on X (@Checkmatey), February 24, 2026 — Original post with full on-chain analysis and bottom formation thesis
• Checkonchain — Various charts for analysis
• CoinMarketCap — Live Bitcoin price, volume, and market cap data
• CNBC — Reporting on Bitcoin's drawdown from all-time highs and February 2026 price action
• VanEck — Analysis of Bitcoin's year-to-date decline and deleveraging dynamics
• CoinDesk — Coverage of Bitcoin's February 25 recovery and double-bottom speculation
• Stockmoney Lizards on X (@StockmoneyL) — February 24 post on Bitcoin's bottom-finding phase
• Merlijn The Trader on X (@MerlijnTrader) — February 14 bottom signal video analysis