When Will The CLARITY Act Finally be Passed?

Nobody knows for sure, but the window is closing fast. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, better known as the CLARITY Act, has been stuck in the Senate since passing the House in July 2025 with a strong 294-134 bipartisan vote. As of mid-March 2026, the bill has no floor vote scheduled, no confirmed markup date from the Senate Banking Committee, and a stablecoin yield dispute that keeps derailing progress. Optimists say it could still reach the president's desk by mid-year. Skeptics say April is the make-or-break month.

What Is Actually Holding the Bill Up?

The short answer: stablecoin yields.

Crypto firms like Coinbase want the right to pay interest-like rewards on stablecoins such as USDC and USDT. These yields, typically 2-5% annually and backed by U.S. Treasuries, are a core revenue driver. Coinbase alone pulled close to 20% of its total revenue from stablecoin-related activity in Q3 2025.

Banks see it differently. The American Bankers Association (ABA) has argued that allowing those rewards amounts to unlicensed deposit-taking. Their fear is a massive wave of deposits shifting from traditional savings accounts to stablecoin platforms.

The White House tried to break the deadlock. Crypto adviser Patrick Witt proposed compromise language that would ban yields on idle stablecoin balances while allowing transaction-based rewards. A March 1 deadline was set for both sides to agree. Banks rejected the compromise on March 5.

On March 10, senators at a crypto summit said they were still working on a stablecoin yield compromise. But the longer this drags on, the harder it gets.

Where Does the CLARITY Act Stand in the Senate?

The bill has to clear two Senate committees before it can reach a full vote. The Senate Agriculture Committee already advanced its portion on January 29, 2026. That covered CFTC-related provisions like commodity market oversight and exchange registration.

The Senate Banking Committee is the bottleneck. Its markup was originally scheduled for January 14, 2026. Chairman Tim Scott postponed it after more than 100 proposed amendments proved too contentious. A second attempt has not been scheduled, though sources have indicated a mid-to-late March window was being considered.

Beyond stablecoin yields, Senate Democrats have raised additional concerns:

• DeFi provisions and vulnerabilities to bad actors
• Vacant roles at the CFTC and SEC that Democrats want filled
• Ethics rules to prevent senior government officials from profiting on personal crypto business ties

That last point ties directly to President Trump's growing crypto business interests, a recurring flashpoint in negotiations.

As of March 16, no new markup date has been announced. Industry insiders point to mid-to-late March as the next realistic window, but only if yield talks produce something concrete. Without progress, April becomes the effective drop-dead month before midterm campaigning takes over the Senate calendar.

Even if both committees clear their markups, the two versions must be reconciled with each other and then reconciled again with the House version. That process alone can take months.

What Are the Key Players Saying?

President Trump has been the loudest supporter. He publicly called out banks on March 3 for holding the bill hostage and has pushed repeatedly for the U.S. to become the "crypto capital of the world."

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) urged compromise on March 10, noting that the regulatory status quo hurts banks more than a clear framework would.

Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) have been at the center of bipartisan negotiations, working to bridge the yield gap between Coinbase and the banking lobby.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), as Banking Committee chair, holds the scheduling power. He has signaled he wants a markup soon but says resolution on yields is needed first.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse estimated an 80-90% chance of passage by the end of April, though that prediction came before the latest round of setbacks.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, was more direct. He warned that if the bill does not clear committee by the end of April, passage odds in 2026 become "extremely low."

Kristin Smith of the Blockchain Association has been more measured, suggesting the bill could reach the Senate floor before the August recess if momentum picks up in the next few weeks.

What Do Prediction Markets Say?

Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 have been on a rollercoaster. They surged to 90% in late February on optimism from the White House push, crashed to around 42% when talks stalled, recovered to 72% after Trump's endorsement, and currently sit near 61%.

What Happens If the CLARITY Act Fails This Year?

The hard deadline is the November 2026 midterm elections. Once campaign season takes over, floor time disappears and legislative priorities shift. Senate floor time is already under pressure from foreign policy (including the Iran situation) and Trump's insistence that Congress pass the SAVE America voting reform bill before he signs anything else.

If the CLARITY Act does not pass in 2026, it likely gets pushed to 2027 or beyond, with no guarantee the next Congress picks it up. Meanwhile, companies are already hedging their bets. Eleven firms have filed for or received federal trust bank charters through the OCC in recent months, building an alternative path to regulatory legitimacy that does not depend on Congress at all.

Crypto lobbying spending is projected at $193 million heading into the midterms, with Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz all making major contributions. The money is there. The White House pressure is there. Whether that translates into a deal on stablecoin yields before the calendar runs out is the only question that matters.

Sources:

• Congress.gov Full text and status of H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025
• CoinDesk Reporting on the March 10 senate summit and stablecoin yield compromise efforts
• Fortune Coverage of the Senate Agriculture Committee vote and Democrat pushback over ethics provisions
• FinTech Weekly Comprehensive explainer on the CLARITY Act timeline, dual Senate tracks, and key deadlines
• FinTech Weekly Analysis of the OCC charter alternative and Senate Banking Committee's next steps
• Crypto In America Reporting on mid-March markup prospects and stakeholder commentary
• Polymarket Live prediction market odds for CLARITY Act passage in 2026
• Yahoo Finance Coverage of the January Senate delay and Polymarket odds collapse
• Senate Banking Committee Official fact sheet released ahead of the January markup attempt
• DeFi Rate Comprehensive CLARITY Act tracker with timeline, lobbying data, and prediction market history